ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ODDIK#111 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#156 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ODDIK ban
50%50%
ODDIK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
AncientODDIK pick
50%40%
ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ODDIK +10%Keyd Stars · 1 map
AnubisKeyd Stars pick
40%50%
ODDIK · 1 mapedge Keyd Stars +10%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
DefaultKeyd Stars ban
60%50%
ODDIK · 1 mapedge ODDIK +10%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
60%50%
ODDIK · 1 mapedge ODDIK +10%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
MirageODDIK ban
50%40%
ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ODDIK +10%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanODDIK remove Mirage
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Default
3. PickODDIK take Ancient
4. PickKeyd Stars take Anubis
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
6. BanODDIK remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
ODDIK 47%Keyd Stars 53%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
ODDIK 53%Keyd Stars 47%
The model gave 53% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
ODDIK 60%Keyd Stars 40%
The model gave 60% on ODDIK — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 66%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3