ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#85 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MIBR Academy#134 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MIBR Academy ban
43%50%
ShindeN · 3 mapsedge MIBR Academy +7%MIBR Academy · 0 maps
InfernoMIBR Academy ban
50%50%
ShindeN · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR Academy · 0 maps
NukeShindeN pick
67%50%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ShindeN +17%MIBR Academy · 0 maps
AncientShindeN ban
50%60%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge MIBR Academy +10%MIBR Academy · 1 map
DefaultShindeN ban
50%60%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge MIBR Academy +10%MIBR Academy · 1 map
OverpassMIBR Academy pick
50%60%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge MIBR Academy +10%MIBR Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Ancient
2. BanMIBR Academy remove Inferno
3. PickShindeN take Nuke
4. PickMIBR Academy take Overpass
5. BanMIBR Academy remove Dust2
6. BanShindeN remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:11
ShindeN 37%MIBR Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on MIBR Academy — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
ShindeN 69%MIBR Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on ShindeN — the map was taken by MIBR Academy.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
ShindeN 50%MIBR Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 72%
Series resultShindeN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3