ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientlow cortisol pick
50%50%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsnearly even +0%low cortisol · 2 maps
Anubislow cortisol ban
50%40%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge Ding Cuts +10%low cortisol · 1 map
DefaultDing Cuts ban
50%60%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 1 map
InfernoDing Cuts ban
50%60%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 1 map
MirageDing Cuts pick
40%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 0 maps
Nukelow cortisol ban
40%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDing Cuts remove Inferno
2. Banlow cortisol remove Anubis
3. PickDing Cuts take Mirage
4. Picklow cortisol take Ancient
5. Banlow cortisol remove Nuke
6. BanDing Cuts remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Ding Cuts 37%low cortisol 63%
The model gave 63% on low cortisol — the map was taken by Ding Cuts.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Ding Cuts 43%low cortisol 57%
The model gave 57% on low cortisol — the map was taken by Ding Cuts.
Model check result
Model favoriteDing Cuts · 53%
Series resultDing Cuts 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2