PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#38 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#71 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
60%60%
1win · 16 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 11 maps
Dust21win pick
58%44%
1win · 20 mapsedge 1win +14%ASTRAL · 5 maps
Anubis1win ban
33%50%
1win · 11 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%ASTRAL · 6 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
57%57%
1win · 10 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
58%57%
1win · 8 mapsnearly even +1%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%57%
1win · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
63%50%
1win · 4 mapsedge 1win +13%ASTRAL · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Anubis
DeciderCache (58% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
1win 66%ASTRAL 34%
The model gave 66% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
1win 48%ASTRAL 52%
The model gave 52% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 63%
Series result1win 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2