1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#56 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INOX Division#63 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINOX Division pick
50%65%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 27 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%61%
INFINITE · 10 mapsedge INOX Division +11%INOX Division · 19 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
43%65%
INFINITE · 10 mapsedge INOX Division +22%INOX Division · 19 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
45%57%
INFINITE · 7 mapsedge INOX Division +12%INOX Division · 17 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
57%50%
INFINITE · 17 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INOX Division · 0 maps
CacheINOX Division ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 10 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%58%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INOX Division +18%INOX Division · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
INFINITE 41%INOX Division 59%
The model gave 59% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
INFINITE 26%INOX Division 74%
The model gave 74% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 57%
Series resultINOX Division 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2