1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betclic#41 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Betclic ban
67%56%
HOTU · 20 mapsedge HOTU +11%Betclic · 5 maps
CacheHOTU pick
64%56%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +8%Betclic · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
73%46%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +27%Betclic · 9 maps
NukeHOTU ban
64%54%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +10%Betclic · 9 maps
AncientBetclic pick
53%75%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge Betclic +22%Betclic · 4 maps
MirageHOTU ban
54%75%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge Betclic +21%Betclic · 4 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
33%29%
HOTU · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Betclic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanBetclic remove Dust2
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickBetclic take Ancient
5. BanBetclic remove Overpass
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (73% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
HOTU 25%Betclic 75%
The model gave 75% on Betclic — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
HOTU 30%Betclic 70%
The model gave 70% on Betclic — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 59%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2