1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LP#122 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLP pick
53%69%
K27 · 15 mapsedge LP +16%LP · 9 maps
NukeK27 ban
37%42%
K27 · 15 mapsedge LP +5%LP · 8 maps
MirageLP ban
67%22%
K27 · 17 mapsedge K27 +45%LP · 5 maps
CacheK27 pick
53%78%
K27 · 15 mapsedge LP +25%LP · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
62%40%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +22%LP · 6 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%47%
K27 · 0 mapsnearly even +3%LP · 11 maps
AnubisLP ban
55%50%
K27 · 7 mapsedge K27 +5%LP · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanLP remove Mirage
3. PickK27 take Cache
4. PickLP take Ancient
5. BanLP remove Anubis
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (62% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
K27 30%LP 70%
The model gave 70% on LP — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
K27 89%LP 11%
The model gave 89% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 76%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2