1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WW#81 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
70%64%
K27 · 19 mapsedge K27 +6%WW · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%43%
K27 · 16 mapsedge K27 +7%WW · 3 maps
NukeK27 ban
37%57%
K27 · 15 mapsedge WW +20%WW · 3 maps
Dust2WW pick
62%50%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +12%WW · 8 maps
AncientWW ban
55%50%
K27 · 16 mapsedge K27 +5%WW · 0 maps
AnubisK27 ban
58%44%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +14%WW · 5 maps
DefaultWW ban
43%50%
K27 · 3 mapsedge WW +7%WW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickWW take Dust2
5. BanWW remove Default
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
K27 59%WW 41%
The model gave 59% on K27 — the map was taken by WW.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
K27 60%WW 40%
The model gave 60% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
K27 57%WW 43%
The model gave 57% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 69%
Series resultK27 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3