BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
40%50%
HEROIC Academy · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
MirageHYPERSPIRIT ban
40%50%
HEROIC Academy · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
HEROIC Academy 37%HYPERSPIRIT 63%
The model gave 63% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
HEROIC Academy 53%HYPERSPIRIT 47%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC Academy · 52%
Series resultHEROIC Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2