ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaleido#167 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Kaleido ban
67%40%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +27%Kaleido · 1 map
DefaultKaleido pick
60%60%
Rare Atom · 1 mapnearly even +0%Kaleido · 1 map
InfernoKaleido ban
40%40%
Rare Atom · 1 mapnearly even +0%Kaleido · 1 map
AnubisRare Atom ban
40%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Kaleido +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
OverpassRare Atom pick
50%60%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +10%Kaleido · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
2. BanKaleido remove Dust2
3. PickRare Atom take Overpass
4. PickKaleido take Default
5. BanKaleido remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Rare Atom 47%Kaleido 53%
The model gave 53% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Rare Atom 77%Kaleido 23%
The model gave 77% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Rare Atom 50%Kaleido 50%
The model gave 50% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 63%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3