ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#94 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Last Bullet#210 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLast Bullet pick
50%67%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Last Bullet +17%Last Bullet · 2 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
60%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +10%Last Bullet · 2 maps
AncientAlter Ego ban
50%40%
Alter Ego · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
NukeLast Bullet ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Last Bullet +10%Last Bullet · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Ancient
2. BanLast Bullet remove Nuke
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickLast Bullet take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Alter Ego 50%Last Bullet 50%
The model gave 50% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 62%
Series resultLast Bullet 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1