ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Time Waves#263 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTime Waves pick
50%40%
Time Waves · 0 mapsedge Time Waves +10%low cortisol · 1 map
Anubislow cortisol ban
50%40%
Time Waves · 0 mapsedge Time Waves +10%low cortisol · 1 map
DefaultTime Waves ban
50%60%
Time Waves · 0 mapsedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTime Waves remove Default
2. Banlow cortisol remove Anubis
3. PickTime Waves take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Time Waves 57%low cortisol 43%
The model gave 57% on Time Waves — the map was taken by low cortisol.
Infernoprediction missed15:19
Time Waves 53%low cortisol 47%
The model gave 53% on Time Waves — the map was taken by low cortisol.
Model check result
Model favoritelow cortisol · 51%
Series resultlow cortisol 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2