ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#85 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Isurus#114 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
40%60%
ShindeN · 1 mapedge Isurus +20%Isurus · 1 map
AncientShindeN pick
50%40%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +10%Isurus · 1 map
InfernoIsurus ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%Isurus · 0 maps
MirageShindeN ban
50%60%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge Isurus +10%Isurus · 1 map
NukeIsurus ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%Isurus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Mirage
2. BanIsurus remove Nuke
3. PickShindeN take Ancient
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
ShindeN 28%Isurus 72%
The model gave 72% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Infernoprediction missed16:19
ShindeN 63%Isurus 37%
The model gave 63% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 69%
Series resultIsurus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2