ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#178 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Yawara pick
60%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%Imperial · 2 maps
AnubisImperial ban
60%40%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +20%Imperial · 1 map
InfernoImperial pick
40%60%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Imperial +20%Imperial · 1 map
MirageImperial ban
50%60%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Imperial +10%Imperial · 1 map
NukeYawara ban
50%40%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +10%Imperial · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanImperial remove Anubis
3. PickYawara take Dust2
4. PickImperial take Inferno
5. BanImperial remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
Yawara 72%Imperial 28%
The model gave 72% on Yawara — the map was taken by Imperial.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Yawara 28%Imperial 72%
The model gave 72% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 58%
Series resultImperial 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2