ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#59 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Resort#106 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom pick
60%50%
Phantom · 1 mapedge Phantom +10%The Last Resort · 2 maps
OverpassPhantom ban
50%50%
Phantom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 2 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort pick
50%60%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%The Last Resort · 1 map
Dust2The Last Resort ban
60%50%
Phantom · 1 mapedge Phantom +10%The Last Resort · 0 maps
NukeThe Last Resort ban
50%60%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%The Last Resort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Overpass
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
3. PickPhantom take Mirage
4. PickThe Last Resort take Anubis
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Phantom 47%The Last Resort 53%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Phantom 63%The Last Resort 37%
The model gave 63% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Phantom 40%The Last Resort 60%
The model gave 60% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 54%
Series resultPhantom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3