ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alter Ego#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultAlter Ego ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%60%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
MirageTYLOO pick
50%60%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
2. BanAlter Ego remove Default
3. PickTYLOO take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
TYLOO 37%Alter Ego 63%
The model gave 63% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Nukeprediction correct13:1
TYLOO 53%Alter Ego 47%
The model gave 53% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 84%
Series resultTYLOO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2