ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#146 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
60%60%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
60%60%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 map
NukeCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 0 maps
DefaultWalczaki pick
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 0 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%40%
Walczaki · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Default
4. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Anubis
5. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Walczaki 60%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 40%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 65%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE Prospects 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1