NODWIN Clutch Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#146 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
60%60%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
AncientWalczaki ban
50%60%
Walczaki · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
NukeWalczaki pick
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:12
Walczaki 47%Nuclear TigeRES 53%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Walczaki 63%Nuclear TigeRES 37%
The model gave 63% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2