ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Surge ban
50%50%
Voca · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Surge · 0 maps
OverpassVoca ban
33%50%
Voca · 2 mapsedge Surge +17%Surge · 0 maps
MirageVoca pick
40%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge Surge +10%Surge · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Overpass
2. BanSurge remove Dust2
3. PickVoca take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Voca 47%Surge 53%
The model gave 53% on Surge — the map was taken by Voca.
Overpassprediction missed13:5
Voca 36%Surge 64%
The model gave 64% on Surge — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 83%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2