ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 1:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wanted Goons ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
NukeWildcard pick
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
InfernoWanted Goons pick
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
OverpassWanted Goons ban
60%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Mirage
2. BanWanted Goons remove Dust2
3. PickWildcard take Nuke
4. PickWanted Goons take Inferno
5. BanWanted Goons remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Wildcard 50%Wanted Goons 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 74%
Series resultWildcard 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1