ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORING PLAYERS#215 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Haunted House#227 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBORING PLAYERS ban
40%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapedge Haunted House +10%Haunted House · 0 maps
DefaultBORING PLAYERS pick
50%40%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +10%Haunted House · 1 map
InfernoHaunted House ban
40%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapedge Haunted House +10%Haunted House · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Ancient
2. BanHaunted House remove Inferno
3. PickBORING PLAYERS take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
BORING PLAYERS 43%Haunted House 57%
The model gave 57% on Haunted House — the map was taken by BORING PLAYERS.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
BORING PLAYERS 47%Haunted House 53%
The model gave 53% on Haunted House — the map was taken by BORING PLAYERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORING PLAYERS · 51%
Series resultBORING PLAYERS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2