ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORING PLAYERS#215 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Just Swing#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoJust Swing ban
40%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 2 maps
AncientJust Swing ban
50%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 0 maps
NukeBORING PLAYERS ban
60%60%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapnearly even +0%Just Swing · 1 map
AnubisBORING PLAYERS ban
50%60%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
DefaultBORING PLAYERS pick
50%40%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +10%Just Swing · 1 map
Dust2Just Swing pick
50%40%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +10%Just Swing · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Anubis
2. BanJust Swing remove Ancient
3. PickBORING PLAYERS take Default
4. PickJust Swing take Dust2
5. BanJust Swing remove Inferno
6. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
BORING PLAYERS 53%Just Swing 47%
The model gave 53% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
BORING PLAYERS 47%Just Swing 53%
The model gave 53% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 54%
Series resultJust Swing 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2