ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Default
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge low cortisol +10%low cortisol · 1 map
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 53%low cortisol 47%
The model gave 53% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 47%low cortisol 53%
The model gave 53% on low cortisol — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 73%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2