BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#69 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAaB pick
50%43%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +7%The Last Resort · 3 maps
AncientThe Last Resort ban
60%60%
AaB · 1 mapnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 1 map
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
60%60%
AaB · 1 mapnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 1 map
NukeAaB ban
50%50%
AaB · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 2 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
50%50%
AaB · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Nuke
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Ancient
3. PickAaB take Mirage
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
AaB 47%The Last Resort 53%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by AaB.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
AaB 53%The Last Resort 47%
The model gave 53% on AaB — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
AaB 50%The Last Resort 50%
The model gave 50% on AaB — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 64%
Series resultThe Last Resort 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3