ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#55 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BIG Academy#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
40%60%
GenOne · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +20%BIG Academy · 1 map
Dust2GenOne pick
60%60%
GenOne · 1 mapnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 1 map
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%60%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
MirageGenOne ban
50%60%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
NukeBIG Academy ban
60%50%
GenOne · 1 mapedge GenOne +10%BIG Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanBIG Academy remove Nuke
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
5. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
GenOne 28%BIG Academy 72%
The model gave 72% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
GenOne 53%BIG Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 52%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2