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PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Back to Backwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
METANOIA Wolves#215 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Back to Back ban
50%40%
Back to Back · 0 mapsedge Back to Back +10%METANOIA Wolves · 11 maps
MirageBack to Back pick
40%15%
Back to Back · 1 mapedge Back to Back +25%METANOIA Wolves · 9 maps
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
50%60%
Back to Back · 0 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +10%METANOIA Wolves · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%38%
Back to Back · 0 mapsedge Back to Back +12%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
InfernoBack to Back ban
50%38%
Back to Back · 0 mapsedge Back to Back +12%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
CacheMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%29%
Back to Back · 0 mapsedge Back to Back +21%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
NukeMETANOIA Wolves ban
40%33%
Back to Back · 1 mapedge Back to Back +7%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBack to Back remove Dust2
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Cache
3. PickBack to Back take Mirage
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Nuke
6. BanBack to Back remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Back to Back 81%METANOIA Wolves 19%
The model gave 81% on Back to Back — the map was taken by Back to Back.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Back to Back 57%METANOIA Wolves 43%
The model gave 57% on Back to Back — the map was taken by Back to Back.
Model check result
Model favoriteMETANOIA Wolves · 54%
Series resultBack to Back 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2