ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURYwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Skele#269 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultFURY pick
40%50%
FURY · 1 mapedge Skele +10%Skele · 0 maps
InfernoFURY ban
50%40%
FURY · 0 mapsedge FURY +10%Skele · 1 map
MirageSkele ban
50%40%
FURY · 0 mapsedge FURY +10%Skele · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURY remove Inferno
2. BanSkele remove Mirage
3. PickFURY take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
FURY 57%Skele 43%
The model gave 57% on FURY — the map was taken by FURY.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
FURY 53%Skele 47%
The model gave 53% on FURY — the map was taken by Skele.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
FURY 50%Skele 50%
The model gave 50% on FURY — the map was taken by FURY.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURY · 51%
Series resultFURY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3