ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#147 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OLDBOYS PLloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
60%60%
BIG Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
BIG Academy · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +10%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
MirageBIG Academy ban
50%60%
BIG Academy · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Mirage
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
BIG Academy 37%OLDBOYS PL 63%
The model gave 63% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
BIG Academy 53%OLDBOYS PL 47%
The model gave 53% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 62%
Series resultBIG Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2