Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
71%53%
Bebop · 10 mapsedge Bebop +18%Misa · 26 maps
MirageBebop pick
53%41%
Bebop · 13 mapsedge Bebop +12%Misa · 18 maps
NukeMisa ban
42%50%
Bebop · 8 mapsedge Misa +8%Misa · 12 maps
AnubisBebop ban
38%50%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Misa +12%Misa · 12 maps
InfernoMisa ban
63%54%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Bebop +9%Misa · 9 maps
DefaultBebop ban
33%50%
Bebop · 8 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%40%
Bebop · 1 mapnearly even +0%Misa · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickBebop take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Inferno
6. BanBebop remove Default
DeciderCache (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
Bebop 45%Misa 55%
The model gave 55% on Misa — the map was taken by Bebop.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Bebop 66%Misa 34%
The model gave 66% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteBebop · 62%
Series resultBebop 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2