WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TDK pick
54%81%
Nemiga · 9 mapsedge TDK +27%TDK · 17 maps
MirageTDK ban
57%53%
Nemiga · 10 mapsnearly even +4%TDK · 13 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
67%79%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge TDK +12%TDK · 15 maps
AncientTDK ban
75%60%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +15%TDK · 11 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
Nemiga · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +10%TDK · 6 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%45%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +5%TDK · 7 maps
DefaultNemiga ban
40%67%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge TDK +27%TDK · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanTDK remove Ancient
3. PickNemiga take Overpass
4. PickTDK take Dust2
5. BanTDK remove Mirage
6. BanNemiga remove Default
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Nemiga 20%TDK 80%
The model gave 80% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Nemiga 69%TDK 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 59%
Series resultTDK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2