Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
los kogutos#123 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2los kogutos ban
41%33%
ex-MANA · 13 mapsedge ex-MANA +8%los kogutos · 5 maps
Ancientex-MANA ban
40%56%
ex-MANA · 6 mapsedge los kogutos +16%los kogutos · 5 maps
Mirageex-MANA pick
71%44%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge ex-MANA +27%los kogutos · 5 maps
Nukelos kogutos pick
43%63%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge los kogutos +20%los kogutos · 4 maps
Anubislos kogutos ban
33%40%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsedge los kogutos +7%los kogutos · 1 map
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%29%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +21%los kogutos · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%40%
ex-MANA · 1 mapnearly even +0%los kogutos · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Cache
2. Banlos kogutos remove Dust2
3. Pickex-MANA take Mirage
4. Picklos kogutos take Nuke
5. Banlos kogutos remove Anubis
6. Banex-MANA remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:16
ex-MANA 78%los kogutos 22%
The model gave 78% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
ex-MANA 29%los kogutos 71%
The model gave 71% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Model check result
Model favoritelos kogutos · 55%
Series resultlos kogutos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2