NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#130 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
67%53%
ex-RUSTEC · 8 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%G2 Ares · 15 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
67%64%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsnearly even +3%G2 Ares · 18 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
29%55%
ex-RUSTEC · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +26%G2 Ares · 16 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%G2 Ares · 12 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%43%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +7%G2 Ares · 10 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
43%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%G2 Ares · 4 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
33%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
ex-RUSTEC 22%G2 Ares 78%
The model gave 78% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
ex-RUSTEC 67%G2 Ares 33%
The model gave 67% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 62%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2