StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LAG#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
73%44%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +29%LAG · 5 maps
MirageLAG ban
60%57%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +3%LAG · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%33%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +23%LAG · 2 maps
AnubisLAG ban
63%40%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +23%LAG · 1 map
NukeMarsborne ban
50%63%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 4 maps
OverpassMarsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 0 maps
Dust2LAG pick
60%67%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge LAG +7%LAG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (56% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Marsborne 50%LAG 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Marsborne 74%LAG 26%
The model gave 74% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 67%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2