ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GameHunters#122 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisImperial ban
40%50%
Imperial · 1 mapedge GameHunters +10%GameHunters · 0 maps
Dust2Imperial pick
40%50%
Imperial · 1 mapedge GameHunters +10%GameHunters · 0 maps
InfernoGameHunters ban
60%50%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Imperial +10%GameHunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Anubis
2. BanGameHunters remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Imperial 47%GameHunters 53%
The model gave 53% on GameHunters — the map was taken by Imperial.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
Imperial 53%GameHunters 47%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by GameHunters.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Imperial 40%GameHunters 60%
The model gave 60% on GameHunters — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 69%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3