NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#217 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
56%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 28 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +16%Fortress · 1 map
AnubisFortress ban
61%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%Fortress · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
41%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 18 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +8%Fortress · 5 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
43%27%
ex-RUSTEC · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +16%Fortress · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
47%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%Fortress · 5 maps
MirageFortress ban
57%25%
ex-RUSTEC · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +32%Fortress · 4 maps
DefaultFortress pick
56%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge Fortress +11%Fortress · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickFortress take Default
5. BanFortress remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderNuke (41% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:1
ex-RUSTEC 64%Fortress 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
ex-RUSTEC 61%Fortress 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 58%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2