NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WAZABI#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WAZABI ban
44%50%
G2 Ares · 21 mapedge WAZABI +6%WAZABI · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%50%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge WAZABI +7%WAZABI · 0 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
45%50%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsedge WAZABI +5%WAZABI · 0 maps
AncientWAZABI ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsnearly even +0%WAZABI · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge WAZABI +10%WAZABI · 0 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
44%50%
G2 Ares · 5 mapsedge WAZABI +6%WAZABI · 0 maps
OverpassWAZABI pick
25%50%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsedge WAZABI +25%WAZABI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanWAZABI remove Ancient
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickWAZABI take Overpass
5. BanWAZABI remove Dust2
6. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
G2 Ares 47%WAZABI 53%
The model gave 53% on WAZABI — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
G2 Ares 48%WAZABI 52%
The model gave 52% on WAZABI — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 50%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2