NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
51%39%
Black Phoenix · 33 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Just Players · 24 maps
MirageJust Players pick
46%56%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 32 maps
NukeJust Players ban
52%35%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Just Players · 16 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
40%59%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Just Players +19%Just Players · 23 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
17%50%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsedge Just Players +33%Just Players · 8 maps
CacheJust Players ban
64%31%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +33%Just Players · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%64%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Just Players +8%Just Players · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (56% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Black Phoenix 38%Just Players 62%
The model gave 62% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Black Phoenix 65%Just Players 35%
The model gave 65% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 58%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2