NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
42%63%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsedge PCIFIC +21%PCIFIC · 20 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
67%33%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsedge UPGRADE +34%PCIFIC · 8 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge PCIFIC +12%PCIFIC · 12 maps
MiragePCIFIC ban
50%54%
UPGRADE · 2 mapsnearly even -4%PCIFIC · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
UPGRADE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%PCIFIC · 8 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%67%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge PCIFIC +29%PCIFIC · 5 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%PCIFIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
5. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
6. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
UPGRADE 47%PCIFIC 53%
The model gave 53% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
UPGRADE 82%PCIFIC 18%
The model gave 82% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 55%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2