NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
42%63%
Leo · 20 mapsedge PCIFIC +21%PCIFIC · 20 maps
NukeLeo pick
85%50%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +35%PCIFIC · 12 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%31%
Leo · 9 mapsedge Leo +7%PCIFIC · 9 maps
MiragePCIFIC ban
36%54%
Leo · 7 mapsedge PCIFIC +18%PCIFIC · 9 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
42%50%
Leo · 15 mapsedge PCIFIC +8%PCIFIC · 0 maps
CacheLeo ban
40%67%
Leo · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +27%PCIFIC · 5 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%46%
Leo · 0 mapsnearly even +4%PCIFIC · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
5. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (38% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Leo 28%PCIFIC 72%
The model gave 72% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Leo 86%PCIFIC 14%
The model gave 86% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
Leo 25%PCIFIC 75%
The model gave 75% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 53%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3