NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%60%
Black Phoenix · 34 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 31 map
Nukeex-RUSTEC pick
52%44%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%ex-RUSTEC · 21 map
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
21%64%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +43%ex-RUSTEC · 21 map
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
44%53%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +9%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
63%44%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge Black Phoenix +19%ex-RUSTEC · 12 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
67%50%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%ex-RUSTEC · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%56%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Nuke
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (56% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Black Phoenix 55%ex-RUSTEC 45%
The model gave 55% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Black Phoenix 71%ex-RUSTEC 29%
The model gave 71% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Black Phoenix 40%ex-RUSTEC 60%
The model gave 60% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 65%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3