NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Drama#135 in the world · win 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Drama ban
29%52%
Drama · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +23%Honvéd · 38 maps
MirageDrama pick
56%49%
Drama · 5 mapsedge Drama +7%Honvéd · 31 map
AncientHonvéd pick
60%53%
Drama · 6 mapsedge Drama +7%Honvéd · 15 maps
InfernoDrama ban
38%35%
Drama · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Honvéd · 16 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%63%
Drama · 1 mapnearly even -3%Honvéd · 12 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
60%40%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +20%Honvéd · 11 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
75%56%
Drama · 4 mapsedge Drama +19%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Dust2
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickDrama take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Ancient
5. BanHonvéd remove Cache
6. BanDrama remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Drama 47%Honvéd 53%
The model gave 53% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 50%
Series resultDrama 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1