NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINOX Division pick
62%57%
INOX Division · 30 mapsedge INOX Division +5%UPGRADE · 3 maps
Dust2UPGRADE ban
46%42%
INOX Division · 20 mapsnearly even +4%UPGRADE · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%57%
INOX Division · 22 mapsedge INOX Division +5%UPGRADE · 3 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
68%38%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge INOX Division +30%UPGRADE · 4 maps
CacheINOX Division ban
41%38%
INOX Division · 13 mapsnearly even +3%UPGRADE · 4 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
64%69%
INOX Division · 7 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%UPGRADE · 9 maps
DefaultINOX Division ban
40%60%
INOX Division · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +20%UPGRADE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Cache
2. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Dust2
6. BanINOX Division remove Default
DeciderAncient (62% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
INOX Division 41%UPGRADE 59%
The model gave 59% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
INOX Division 80%UPGRADE 20%
The model gave 80% on INOX Division — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
INOX Division 55%UPGRADE 45%
The model gave 55% on INOX Division — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 58%
Series resultUPGRADE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3