NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
62%61%
PCIFIC · 22 mapsnearly even +1%ex-RUSTEC · 34 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC pick
44%43%
PCIFIC · 14 mapsnearly even +1%ex-RUSTEC · 24 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
31%64%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +33%ex-RUSTEC · 21 map
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
54%50%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%47%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
60%47%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +13%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
DefaultPCIFIC ban
40%56%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +16%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Nuke
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
6. BanPCIFIC remove Default
DeciderInferno (46% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
PCIFIC 55%ex-RUSTEC 45%
The model gave 55% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Anubisprediction correct16:19
PCIFIC 18%ex-RUSTEC 82%
The model gave 82% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 61%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2