NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Drama#135 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageQUAZAR pick
65%56%
QUAZAR · 13 mapsedge QUAZAR +9%Drama · 5 maps
Dust2QUAZAR ban
50%29%
QUAZAR · 12 mapsedge QUAZAR +21%Drama · 3 maps
NukeDrama pick
57%75%
QUAZAR · 10 mapsedge Drama +18%Drama · 4 maps
CacheDrama ban
60%60%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Drama · 1 map
AnubisDrama ban
57%40%
QUAZAR · 10 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%Drama · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
56%38%
QUAZAR · 5 mapsedge QUAZAR +18%Drama · 4 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%60%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge Drama +10%Drama · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanDrama remove Anubis
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickDrama take Nuke
5. BanDrama remove Cache
6. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (56% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
QUAZAR 65%Drama 35%
The model gave 65% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
QUAZAR 69%Drama 31%
The model gave 69% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 55%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2