NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Just Players ban
40%42%
Just Players · 26 mapsnearly even -2%Leo · 20 maps
MirageLeo ban
56%36%
Just Players · 35 mapsedge Just Players +20%Leo · 7 maps
AncientJust Players pick
61%44%
Just Players · 27 mapsedge Just Players +17%Leo · 14 maps
NukeJust Players ban
33%85%
Just Players · 17 mapsedge Leo +52%Leo · 16 maps
AnubisLeo ban
54%38%
Just Players · 9 mapsedge Just Players +16%Leo · 9 maps
CacheLeo pick
31%45%
Just Players · 9 mapsedge Leo +14%Leo · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
64%29%
Just Players · 7 mapsedge Just Players +35%Leo · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Nuke
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickJust Players take Ancient
4. PickLeo take Cache
5. BanLeo remove Anubis
6. BanJust Players remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (64% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Just Players 81%Leo 19%
The model gave 81% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 51%
Series resultJust Players 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1