NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
53%50%
Black Phoenix · 36 mapsnearly even +3%BAKS · 10 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
55%50%
Black Phoenix · 18 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%BAKS · 8 maps
CacheBAKS pick
67%72%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge BAKS +5%BAKS · 14 maps
MirageBAKS ban
44%50%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge BAKS +6%BAKS · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
59%40%
Black Phoenix · 13 mapsedge Black Phoenix +19%BAKS · 6 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
25%50%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge BAKS +25%BAKS · 0 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
40%70%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge BAKS +30%BAKS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (59% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 41%BAKS 59%
The model gave 59% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Black Phoenix 55%BAKS 45%
The model gave 55% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Black Phoenix 68%BAKS 32%
The model gave 68% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 52%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3