NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
57%44%
BRUTE · 17 mapsedge BRUTE +13%BET-M · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%53%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +5%BET-M · 15 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
50%55%
BRUTE · 10 mapsedge BET-M +5%BET-M · 7 maps
MirageBET-M ban
64%57%
BRUTE · 7 mapsedge BRUTE +7%BET-M · 10 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
40%29%
BRUTE · 1 mapedge BRUTE +11%BET-M · 13 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
67%63%
BRUTE · 2 mapsnearly even +4%BET-M · 12 maps
CacheBET-M ban
46%50%
BRUTE · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanBET-M remove Cache
3. PickBRUTE take Dust2
4. PickBET-M take Inferno
5. BanBET-M remove Mirage
6. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (58% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
BRUTE 60%BET-M 40%
The model gave 60% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
BRUTE 59%BET-M 41%
The model gave 59% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 51%
Series resultBET-M 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2