NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
57%70%
BRUTE · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +13%SPARTA · 39 maps
MirageBRUTE ban
58%50%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +8%SPARTA · 22 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%50%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +8%SPARTA · 16 maps
CacheSPARTA pick
46%53%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 13 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
33%45%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +12%SPARTA · 18 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
67%53%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +14%SPARTA · 13 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%43%
BRUTE · 10 mapsedge BRUTE +7%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickBRUTE take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Cache
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanBRUTE remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
BRUTE 34%SPARTA 66%
The model gave 66% on SPARTA — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
BRUTE 61%SPARTA 39%
The model gave 61% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 54%
Series resultBRUTE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2