NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
68%40%
SPARTA · 40 mapsedge SPARTA +28%Just Players · 26 maps
MirageJust Players pick
48%56%
SPARTA · 23 mapsedge Just Players +8%Just Players · 37 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
45%59%
SPARTA · 18 mapsedge Just Players +14%Just Players · 28 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
SPARTA · 16 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Just Players · 20 maps
CacheJust Players ban
53%31%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge SPARTA +22%Just Players · 9 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
43%50%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge Just Players +7%Just Players · 10 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
53%50%
SPARTA · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Just Players · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanJust Players remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Cache
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
SPARTA 78%Just Players 22%
The model gave 78% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
SPARTA 39%Just Players 61%
The model gave 61% on Just Players — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 64%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2