NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientIberian Soul ban
53%67%
Iberian Soul · 11 mapsedge UPGRADE +14%UPGRADE · 5 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
60%59%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapnearly even +1%UPGRADE · 13 maps
InfernoIberian Soul pick
64%57%
Iberian Soul · 7 mapsedge Iberian Soul +7%UPGRADE · 3 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
33%38%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%UPGRADE · 4 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
56%38%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsedge Iberian Soul +18%UPGRADE · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%40%
Iberian Soul · 3 mapsedge Iberian Soul +17%UPGRADE · 6 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%42%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +8%UPGRADE · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickIberian Soul take Inferno
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
6. BanIberian Soul remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Iberian Soul 48%UPGRADE 52%
The model gave 52% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Iberian Soul 69%UPGRADE 31%
The model gave 69% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 59%
Series resultIberian Soul 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2